Vetsource data shows practices unlikely to see pandemic puppy boom in senior years

Vetsource released a white paper showing that new patient visits spiked across all age groups in 2020 and 2021, then declined every year since. The data also shows puppies and kittens have held a steady share of the total patient population since 2019, meaning practices are unlikely to see a surge in senior pet visits in the coming year.

What the numbers say

Practices saw a jump in new patients during 2020 and 2021 across all age categories: young animals, adults one to seven years old, and seniors eight years and older, according to the white paper. Visits from new patients have dropped each year after 2021.

Despite the general increase in new patients during the pandemic years, puppies and kittens have made up a fairly consistent portion of the total patient population since 2019, per the white paper. The white paper reports that fewer new patients and higher churn rates have led to a net loss of patients for the average veterinary practice.

The white paper does not give a churn rate or a retention percentage, and it does not break down patient losses by practice size or region. The average practice is losing patients, not gaining them, and the pandemic cohort is not materializing as a senior-pet surge.

The capacity decision this reframes

Practices that expanded capacity in recent years may have assumed the 2020-2021 new patient spike would translate to sustained patient volume as those pets aged. The Vetsource data indicates that did not happen, and the combination of fewer new patients and higher churn has produced what the white paper describes as a net patient loss for the average practice.

The white paper's recommendation to prioritize retention over acquisition makes sense when churn is driving patient losses at the average practice. For practices facing patient losses, the first step is looking at your own retention numbers against the national picture. If your churn rate is running higher than you thought, the white paper suggests focusing on re-engaging current patients rather than spending to acquire new ones.

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What it means for expansion decisions

If your books are running lighter than expected and you expanded in recent years, this data provides context for adjusting budgets and hiring decisions accordingly. Expansion decisions made two years ago look different in light of these numbers, and retention work is more urgent than acquisition spend for most practices.

We're reading this as a reframing of the capacity question most practices have been asking since 2022. The pandemic surge was real, but it didn't stick, and the data now shows the average practice is losing patients rather than adding them.

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